Caption: Davendranath Tancoo. Photo: T&T Parliament
Attention in Trinidad and Tobago is increasingly turning to the 2026/2027 National Budget, scheduled for October 12, with investors looking for greater clarity on the Government’s fiscal priorities, borrowing programme, and plans to support economic growth. It will be the second Budget to be delivered by Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo.
The Budget comes at an important time, as international interest rates remain elevated—with the U.S. 10-year Treasury recently moving above 5%—while domestic liquidity has tightened. Against this backdrop, markets will be particularly attentive to the fiscal deficit, debt-management strategy, infrastructure spending, and measures aimed at encouraging private investment. The Government has indicated that the Budget will outline its economic programme and provide an update on developments across key sectors.
The energy sector offers a more constructive backdrop ahead of the Budget. Recent developments include NGC’s new gas supply contract with EOG Resources and its agreement to receive 50% of the gas volumes from the Coconut development, which is expected to begin production in early 2027.
NGC and Shell have also advanced the Aphrodite development, while work continues on the Manakin-Cocuina and Shell’s Manatee projects. In deepwater exploration, BP is moving to acquire Woodside’s 70% interest in Calypso, and Occidental has joined ExxonMobil in the TTUD-1 ultra-deepwater block.
Although these projects will take time to reach production, together they signal improved prospects for natural gas supply, LNG and petrochemical activity, government revenue, and foreign-exchange earnings. NGC also reported TT$3.46 billion in after-tax profit for 2025, its highest in more than a decade.
Global Markets: Higher yields remain key theme
U.S. equities were mixed over the last five trading days. The S&P 500 slipped 0.25%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.45% and the Dow declined 1.26%. Technology remained relatively resilient, with Nvidia gaining 3.95% and Broadcom 1.02% over five days.
The more significant development, however, was in the bond market, where we observed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climb above 5.3% during the week, its highest level since 2002, as investors responded to persistent inflation and expectations that rates could remain higher for longer. Brent crude also remained above US$100 per barrel, providing support for energy-producing economies but adding to global inflation concerns.
The UK and European markets have weakened. The FTSE 100 declined 2.18% and the FTSE 250 slipped 0.28%. Continental Europe was also softer, with the STOXX Europe 600 down 1.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 declining 1.02%, CAC 40 falling 2.24%, DAX losing 0.70%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 2.67%. Higher bond yields remain an important constraint for European valuations, with UK long-term yields reaching 6% during the week.
Asia produced a mixed picture. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.93%, supported by continued strength in Japanese equities, while the JPX Nikkei 400 declined 0.81%. Chinese markets were weaker, with the Shanghai Composite falling 2.78% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declining 2.19%. Australia’s ASX 200 edged 0.20% higher.
Trinidad and Tobago equities and liquidity
The local market recorded modest gains. The Composite Index rose 0.19%, the All T&T Index gained 0.16%, and the Cross Listed Index increased 0.27%. Unilever Caribbean led the week’s advances, rising 5.20%, followed by Trinidad Cement at 4.71%. Trading activity, however, was relatively subdued; the First Tier volume declined 87.66% to 1.51 million shares, with TT$15.30 million traded. NGL represented 37.64% of total volume.
Domestic banking liquidity also declined, with commercial-bank excess reserves falling by approximately TT$1.97 billion to TT$3.96 billion.
Caribbean bonds
Caribbean USD bonds generally reflected the broader rise in global yields. Trinidad and Tobago’s 2030 bond was offered around 94.20, yielding approximately 6.26%, while the 2036 and 2038 issues offered yields around 6.95% and 7.04%, respectively.
Jamaica’s 2036 bond remained well above par at an indicative offer price of 119.00, yielding approximately 5.84%, while the 2039 and 2045 bonds yielded around 6.42% and 6.80%. Barbados’ 2029 was around 100.35 on the offer, yielding 6.28%, while its 2035 bond was around 103.80 with a 7.24% yield. In the Dominican Republic, the 2030 bond was offered near 94.05 at 6.51%.
In the energy sector, the NGC 6.05% 2036 Global bond was quoted around 90.00 bid/92.00 offer, with an indicative offer yield of approximately 7.25%. While higher global rates have placed pressure on Caribbean bond prices, Trinidad and Tobago enters the upcoming Budget period with a more encouraging energy sector pipeline.
The key issue for investors will be how fiscal policy, energy investment, and debt management come together to support sustainable growth while navigating a higher global interest-rate environment.
About the author: Dave Dookie is the Managing Director of Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited, a Trinidad and Tobago-based financial advisory firm specialising in investment management, capital markets, and structured finance. He has advised governments, financial institutions, and energy companies on debt issuance, project financing, and strategic capital raising across the Caribbean. He holds degrees and advanced qualifications from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the University of London, and has completed advanced training in data science through the MIT Applied Data Science Programme
